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Lucas Critique

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Lucas Critique
The concept that one cannot draw accurate conclusions about present macroeconomic phenomena based purely on past data. The Lucas critique states that every policy change affects the circumstances under which different situations occur. Thus, a policy that worked under one set of circumstances may not apply under a different set. The name comes from a 1976 paper by Robert Lucas.
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Finn and I had read the Lucas critique and knew that for dynamic equilibrium models, only policy rules could be evaluated.
The transformation of macroeconomic policy and research by Prescott, Edward C. / American Economist
This may be viewed as another example of the Lucas Critique, cautioning us about the hazard of using past data to formulate future policies.
Capital account opening, international reserves, and development: ... by Aizenman, Joshua / NBER Reporter
We will offer two types of casual evidence aimed at exploring whether the elements of the [epsilon] path associated with a proposed policy alternative raise quantitatively important Lucas critique issues.
Evaluating monetary policy options by McMillin, W. Douglas / Southern Economic Journal
 
 
 
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