leading indicators


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Leading Economic Indicator

An indicator that occurs before an economy has started moving in a particular direction and is therefore used to predict the economy's movement. For example, a reduction in the average number of hours worked by manufacturing employees is considered a leading indicator because it usually precedes an economic slowdown or a recession. Among the indicators used by the Composite Index of Leading Indicators are the change in the money supply and the number of new building permits issued for residences. Leading economic indicators are used to help predict the direction of the economy; investors and businesses can use them to make their decisions accordingly.

leading indicators

the statistical time series that past experience has shown tends to reflect later changes, and which thus can be used to forecast these changes because they precede the changes in a consistent manner and by a relatively constant time interval. For example, current birth statistics would provide a firm basis for predicting primary school admissions five or six years ahead. Leading indicators like orders for new machine tools, overtime/short-time working in manufacturing and housebuilding starts are frequently used for SALES FORECASTING.
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However, seven of the eight components that make up New Hampshire's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in May: unemployment claims, building permits, exports, consumer expectations (regional), stock prices (national), interest rate spread and technology index (national).
NHBR/e-forecasting economic index dips in May
For the same reason, fewer employers have implemented safety incentive programs based exclusively on leading indicators, as it is much more difficult to identify leading indicators and administer those programs.
OSHA's emerging perspective on safety incentive programs: Darren J. Hunter, rooney, rippie & ratnaswamy LLP, Chicago
of selecting and applying these leading indicators.
Moody's discusses leading indicators of bank asset quality in Asia-Pacific
Instead, I try to pick just three to five data points that move left to right on the chart so that I can create a series of leading indicators for my business.
How to get better at forecasting
During the Bloomberg interview, its CEO highlighted several aspects which convince him and his team that their leading indicators are correct in calling a recession.
A chilly pepper by any other name is still a ..
Among the leading indicators, moves in stock prices were weak, apparently because investors were risk-averse amid uncertainties over the eurozone debt crisis, the official said.
UPDATE1: Japan's May key composite economic index down for 2nd straight month
The six-month annualized rate of change for the composite index of leading indicators stood at 6.
CEPD flashes sixth blue light for Taiwan's business status in April
The Paris-based forecaster said its leading indicator measure for the UK rose by 0.
Is end of recession in sight?
The measures, called leading indicators, resemble those that financial forecasters used to predict economic performance.
Predicting project performance
In this connection, note that the Conference Board, which added the yield curve spread to its index of leading indicators in 1996, announced in June 2005 that it will adjust its procedures so as to focus on the level and not on the change.
The yield curve and recessions: how the difference between long- and short-term interest rates anticipates recessions in the United States and other industrial economies
Forecasting based on leading indicators has a long history in economics.
P-star model: a leading indicator of inflation for Pakistan
Some measures can be used as leading indicators of future accident-year results.
Be prepared: insurers need ways to monitor their operations and results so they don't fall apart amid the clamor for lower prices and better terms that comes with a soft market

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