To verify that our results are not specific to the relatively short sample we have used or to the Greenbook vintages we employed, we repeated the exercise using Blue Chip forecasts as the judgmental forecast for the 1992-2010 period.
The DSGE model forecast is similar to the judgmental forecast and is better than the BVAR, in terms of RMSEs, at almost all horizons, but all three forecasts are again very poor.
In all six panels in figure 7, the model forecast and the judgmental forecast are close to each other when the forecast horizon is 4 quarters.
An interesting point is that the judgmental forecast improves within quarters, especially the nowcast quarter, whereas the DSGE and BVAR model forecasts do not.
In other words, greater expertise does not lead to better judgmental forecasts.
Research suggests that judgmental forecasts can also be improved by simply averaging the results of multiple independent forecasts.
Cognitive biases do much to explain the limitations of judgmental forecasts, but Tetlock's work suggests an additional explanation.