In reviewing 40 years of data, East and Murphy found seven specific periods of Fed fund
rate increases in which five of the seven were good for REITs ownership.
One, the Chicago IMM Eurodollar and Fed Fund
futures markets now contradicts the Fed Chairman's pledge because it implies a Fed Funds
rate of 0.
While still at historically low levels, the Fed Fund
rate increase marks a new cycle of rising borrowing costs across both consumer and commercial sectors.
Analysts look for the Fed to hike the funds rate band 25 bps this month, and while the range of Fed funds
estimates may widen from the high side, analysts expect the median dot to remain at 3 tightenings for 2018.
If you use the market-based probabilities of the number of Fed Funds
rate hikes along with the current spread between the Fed Funds
Rate and the year U.
In December 2016, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds
For our sample excluding the financial crisis (1994-2007), we found that Fed funds
surprises had a significant effect on the percent change in the S&P 500 index, but generally had little significant effect on Treasury yields and the trade-weighted dollar.
He said, 'Given my current outlook, I believe that it would be appropriate to wait until 2017 to initiate lift off and then raise the fed funds
rate at about 2 percentage points per year.
Historically, the fed funds
market has been a key financial market with major macroeconomic and monetary policy implications.
In September, when FOMC participants last estimated where they thought the "appropriate pace of policy firming" would leave the fed funds
rate target at the end of next year, the answers were all over the lot.
After today s decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain the target Fed funds
rate at zero to 25 basis points, Swiss Re s Chief Economist, Kurt Karl believes that with strong growth in the US economy virtually assured for the rest of the year, the Fed's forward guidance will at first become neutral and then begin hinting about a future tightening.
When that happens, there will be renewed interest in predicting where the fed funds
rate will be in the future.