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Expected Future Return

   Also found in: Wikipedia 0.01 sec.
Expected future return
The return that is expected to be earned on an asset in the future. Also called the expected return.

Expected Return
The return on an investment as estimated by an asset pricing model. It is calculated by taking the average of the probability distribution of all possible returns. For example, a model might state that an investment has a 10% chance of a 100% return and a 90% chance of a 50% return. The expected return is calculated as:

Expected Return = 0.1(1) + 0.9(0.5) = 0.55 = 55%.

It is important to note that there is no guarantee that the expected rate of return and the actual return will be the same. See also: Abnormal return.


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] in a continuous time environment involves finding where the slope of the value function (the function describing expected future returns as a function of current cash) is equal to one (see Harrison 1985).
Since firms go bankrupt typically due to inability to pay debt, the major factor in determining whether a firm will go bankrupt is the availability of cash, while expected future returns should not have a significant effect on the probability of bankruptcy.
When considering a range of scenarios, the insurance enterprise should consider historical investment returns, the volatility" of those returns, and expected future returns, as applicable.
 
 
 
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