Even so, the further decline in U6 unemployment (a wider measure of unemployment capturing segments such as discouraged workers
and those looking for more work but can't find it) suggests that we may not be waiting as long as some suspect.
0% - such is the impact of these discouraged workers
dropping out of the labour force.
Driven by a jump in both the number of part-time workers who would prefer a full-time job and the number of discouraged workers
, the U-6 rate rose to 15 percent in July.
Yet even in establishment media outlets, headline writers hedged that figure with variations on Unemployment Drops but Discouraged Workers
3 percent as more discouraged workers
re-entered the job arket.
The number of discouraged workers
, those who have given up looking for work and are no longer counted as unemployed, is down 47,000 from last year, at about 2.
This is a great sign that the unemployment rate is dropping because of increased employment and not discouraged workers
leaving the labor force.
However, headline unemployment is expected to decline only slowly, in part because improving prospects will draw discouraged workers
back into the labor force, and long-term unemployment will take time to fall to historic levels, it said.
The best explanations of why labor force participation has continued to be lower than in the past is that the skills required by the economy have been changing, making many workers less qualified than before and creating more discouraged workers
who have stopped looking for work because they think it is futile; and
3 million who are discouraged workers
who have given up looking for a job and more than 12 million who are not economically active.
The length of time people are unemployed deteriorated, the number of discouraged workers
increased, voluntary job labor fell and the labor force participation rate declined, all items Fed policymakers pay close attention to, she said.