0 percent for one-year ahead PCE deflator
, for example), it would be much better to generate probabilities of each inflation scenario (for instance, 55 percent chance of inflation, 30 percent chance of deflation, and 15 percent chances of price stability).
Beyond these traditional types of software, new and rapidly growing types of software--like Apps for mobile devices--also need to have accurate deflators
Using survey data for the United States, Davis and Kanago (2004) found a negative correlation for the deflator
and real GDP; but, like Den Haan, they found a positive correlation between the CPI and the IP.
The GDP deflator
is the next-easier to predict and, again, the CPI proves most difficult.
In 1995-1996 the GDP deflator
was significantly lower than the CPI because the surprise inflation was not compensated for in the public sector; therefore the deflator
of government final expenditures increased only moderately.
Table 1 presents the 2002:4 weights for the core PCE deflator
and some of its major components.
First, as alluded to above, this article focuses on modeling the dynamics of the state-price deflator
There is somewhat less evidence against the model when we use the GDP and CPI deflator
based measures of inflation.
The following methods are not acceptable: (1) use of the prior year's cumulative deflator
index to value the current year's increment, assuming there is no inflation at the beginning of the current year or (2) use of a method that estimates the earliest acquisitions cost based on inventory turns.
But even though the so-called GDP deflator
- which measures changes in the prices of domestically produced goods - jumped to a 1.
The paper develops a sectoral approach to the analysis of New Zealand's historical health expenditure statistics, establishing the feasibility of developing an implicit health-sector price deflator
The contract would require taxpayers to use a gross domestic product deflator
that is published quarterly.