Later we show that when controlling for the effects of banking regulation as well as monetary policy and default risk, the coefficient on the business cycle indicator becomes negative and significant in more than 80% of the 42 possible combinations of margins and BCIs (see Table 2).
In a first step, we test whether the negative and significant sample correlations between margins and the business cycle indicator are robust to the inclusion of controls related to monetary policy, default risk and banking regulation.
where y is the margin measure and X is the business cycle indicator.
Specially prone to this bias are the business cycle indicator and the share of total assets held by large banks.
The countercyclicality of price-cost margins is documented with a negative and significant coefficient [beta] for most specifications of the business cycle indicator and price-cost margins.
Alternatively, the coefficients in Table 3 can be interpreted as the share of the typical deviation of each price-cost margin that can be explained by the typical deviation in each business cycle indicator.
None of the European business cycle indicators affect the intensity of trading activities.
We defined a good news as a positive surprise --announced number higher than expected- for three of the US business cycle indicators : GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Trade, and as negative surprise --announced number lower than expected- for the Unemployment announcement.
Information on composite indexes appears each month in the Business Cycle Indicators section (C-pages) of the Survey Of Current Business.
5 Business Cycle Indicators Historical Data for User-selected Series (fax, printout).
The package also includes historical data for the composite indexes and their components (as shown in the October 1994 Survey) plus the historical chronology of business cycle expansions and contractions, the cyclical leads and lags for selected indicators, and the titles and sources of all business cycle indicator series.
The following distribution services will be available from The Conference Board: Composite Index news release Mail service annual subscription: $24 Fax Service annual subscription: $40 Business Cycle Indicators
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