A move toward Bayesianism
will not mean the end of adversarialism.
This paper will argue that this answer is inconsistent with the version of Bayesianism
that Williamson advocates.
Overall this book is an impressive example of formal epistemology that tackles two significant challenges for traditional Bayesianism
2002); Colin Howson, Bayesianism
in Statistics, in Bayes's Theorem, supra note 49, at 39-71; Branden Fitelson, A Bayesian Account of Independent Evidence with Applications, 68 Phil, of Sci.
These theories do overlap in various respects, but perhaps the clearest commonality is their united objection to some or all of the assumptions of Bayesianism
Use of the availability heuristic can be seen as a kind of rough-and-ready Bayesianism
is not a disease named for the doctor who first diagnosed it, but a mathematical philosophy named for the English clergyman who first articulated it.
Savage; tell you how I know I am a Bayesian; and apply Bayesianism
to philosophical questions such as: Is there a God and, if so what is He, She or It like?
I do not propose here to describe the mathematical underpinnings of Bayesianism
, preferring to leave them to the more technically competent; I wish instead to focus on whether Bayes's theorem furnishes an adequate model for legal fact-finding.
I offer two arguments that Bayesianism
should be modified so as not to imply the logical infallibility of even the ideally rational; the first relies both on a plausible principle of ideal reasoning--that one should not go beyond her evidence--and the claim that an ideally rational agent might, have little evidence for a logical truth.
can produce extremism and significant blunders.
Probability and inference in the law of evidence: The uses and limits of Bayesianism