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A Priori Probability

   Also found in: Medical, Acronyms, Wikipedia 0.03 sec.
A Priori Probability
Probability calculated by logically examining existing information.

Notes:
A priori probabilities are most often used within the counting method of calculating probability. This is because you must use logic to determine what outcomes of an event are possible in order to determine the number of ways these outcomes can occur.

For example, consider how the price of a share can change. Its price can increase, decrease, or remain the same. Therefore, according to a priori probability, we can assume that there is a 1-in-3, or 33%, chance of one of the outcomes occurring (all else remaining equal).


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Although confidence limits and p-values can be easily calculated from standard errors and likelihood ratio tests, they are commonly misinterpreted as reflecting a process of randomization in which there is an a priori probability distribution of results from repeated unbiased, well-controlled experiments distributed around the true parameter (Greenland 1990).
However, an a priori probability close to 0 or 1 yields a classical prediction.
 
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